Aviation Analysts, Cirium, have released their annual Fleet Report, which points towards an increased investment in aircraft over the next twenty years.
Now in its twelfth edition, the report reveals that 45,900 aircraft will be delivered, with manufacturers focusing on more efficient and environmentally friendly aircraft. The report also found that, despite ongoing supply issues – notably with Boeing 737MAX – aircraft delivery is up by around 5% on pre-pandemic levels. This is despite a marked drop in regional and turbo prop plane deliveries, 8% and 13% respectively.
Away from passenger aircraft, the report predicts that around 3,500 freight aircraft are to be delivered over the next year, equating to a 2.6% rise a year growth in the global cargo fleet. That still leads for the rest of the growth to be passenger aircraft, with its total growth set to be around 4.4% over the same twenty year period.
Rob Morris, head of Consultancy at Cirium Ascend Consultancy, who commissioned the report, said in a statement:
“As we continue to enter the next cycle of growth for the aviation industry, our new Fleet Forecast illustrates the continued demand for new aircraft, as airlines look to renew and expand their fleets.
However, it is clear that supply chain issues and other manufacturing will continue to cause delays for OEMs, leading to uncertain delivery schedules for many airlines, and this has been factored into our forecast.”
Boeing and Airbus to Remain Dominant
Despite ongoing concerns over safety, as well as achievability of delivery targets and poor industrial relations, the report predicts that Airbus and Boeing will remain the market leaders in aircraft manufacturing. Both firms are likely to deliver 84% of all aircraft between them between 2024 and 2043, with Asia likely to be the leader in aircraft growth.
The region is set to take 45% of all deliveries over the period, with China taking around 25% of that. Meanwhile, India is likely to become the emerging market, according to the report, with over 3,000 aircraft being added to the country’s stock by 2043.
The report also anticipates an increase in technology and investment in new engine designs and a push towards net-zero engines in the coming years. Earlier this year, easyJet announced that it was to partner JetZero to develop blended wing technology. Meanwhile, EcoJet – itself facing a number of delays – still intends to fly its first fully hydrogen fuel celled aircraft by next year.
So it’s clear, according to Cirium’s report, that investment will continue to increase with most data indicating that new markets and technology will drive growth.
You can read Cirium’s full report here.
What do you think? Do you expect Cirium’s forecasts to be correct, or is the timescale perhaps a little too wide, and may not take into account economic or political changes that may happen in two decades? Leave a comment below, and tell us what you think.
