Russian aviation industry braces for impact

Due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and consequent sanctions on the Russian economy, bankruptcies and aircraft shortages loom over Russian aviation. Reportedly due to lack of working planes, international and domestic flights are to recess in 2025. Priority remains, however, with intranational service.

Writing on X, Kyrylo Shevchenko, former Head of the National Bank of Ukraine said:

Russian airlines are slashing flights due to a growing plane shortage. No new Boeings, no Airbuses, no spare parts — just vibes and duct tape. Russia promised 1,000 new planes by 2030. They’ve built 5. At this rate, they’ll hit the target in 600 years. Russia’s aviation industry is slowly grounding itself.

Sanctions against the Russian Federation have made Western-made aircraft approaching end-of-life unable to be mended. According to Sergey Chemezov, head of Russian state-owned defence conglomerate, Rostec, this risks the grounding of 30% of foreign made aircraft within 5 years. This comes as Russian airlines salvage replacement parts from other aircraft to combat Western companies refusing sanctioned repair services.

The state of the industry

Further investigations spell an even darker trajectory for the embattled nation’s aviation industry. Reports warn that 30 Russian airlines are to declare bankruptcy in 2025 alone, bogged down by growing debt from sanctions. Furthermore, S7, Russia’s largest private airline, is scrapping a £65 million turbine jet engine plant in St. Petersburg. Soaring inflation and responsive interest rate hikes coupled with nearly £10 billion annual losses from Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned petroleum company, speak to the turbulent future the Russian aviation industry faces.

In lieu of this, local manufacturers have promised to push back and work towards ‘import substitution’, an attempt to foster within the borders of Russia, and some others, the means to not rely on goods now sanctioned. This has resulted in the creation of the handful of Tu-214 and Il-96-300 aircraft. In 2025, the budget allocated to their production has been cut by 1.5 times.

Around 700 Boeing and Airbus jets currently handle 90% of annual commercial air traffic in Russia. Rosaviatsia, the Russian aviation authority, says 58 of the total commercial fleet have already been forced to retire.

It is clear that aviation, like much of the Russian economy, is on track for disaster. With no clear end to the war in sight and continued emphasis to detach from Western economic influence, only time can tell what will come of the aviation sector of the Russian Federation. I suspect it is bleak. Share your opinions in the comment section below.