The AviationValues Matrix provides a snapshot insight into recent aircraft value movements and market sentiments.
Using the Automated Valuation Model (AVM), values of selected airframes and their relative changes are calculated and reflected in the below matrices. The % difference in value is determined by comparing airframe values by the same date of each month. Travel Radar spoke with Head Appraiser, Kane Ray, to find out what the AVM said for January 2024 so far!
Narrowbodies
Previous production aircraft such as the Airbus A321-200 and Boeing 737-800 exhibit the most noticeable Market Value increases in the 12 months up to 08 January 2024.
In a year that has seen supply chain constraints and the recurring theme of new engine option issues, operators have sought stability with out of production but proven in service narrowbody types.
Consequently, Market Values have risen in the last 12 months as the availability of serviceable aircraft has reduced with off market transactions and lease extension commitments reducing aircraft that could have become available for sale or lease.
Supporting increased A321-200 Market Values, in December 2023, AviationValues observed a purchased off lease transaction between Finnair (buyer) and BOC Aviation (seller) for six aircraft with an average price per aircraft of c. USD 36.53m. The aircraft ranged between six and seven year’s old.
Widebodies
In the 12 months up to 08 January 2024, the largest Market Value increases have been observed by Airbus’ A330-300 and Boeing’s 777-300ER.
Although not the highest increases across the aircraft ages for both aircraft, increases are mirrored in the middle life years between ages 5 and 15 where supporting transaction data resulted in increased Market Values in AviationValues’ AVM.
For the A330-300, age 10 aircraft Market Values have increased from USD 19.15m on 08 January 2023 to USD 21.80m on 08 January 2024.
For the age 10 777-300ER, Market Values have increased USD 4.88m from USD 36.97m to USD 41.85m during the same 12 month period.
Note, Value changes will not appear for impossible situations. For example, a 10 year old A321neo would be considered an impossible situation. Hence, one airframe may be switched for another when it is appropriate to do so. The current airframes are highly representative of their respective category. Grey marked % changes indicate that the values have remained relatively stable over the previous month (+- 0.5% change).
In the realm of aviation economics, the past year has seen a distinct pattern emerge in the market, reflecting operators’ strategic responses to challenges. The demand for out-of-production narrowbody aircraft like the Airbus A321-200 and Boeing 737-800 has been driven not only by their proven reliability but also by the industry’s resilience in navigating supply chain disruptions and recurring engine issues.
What’s your outlook for the aviation industry in 2024? We’d be keen to hear your thoughts below!
