Embraer’s latest analysis argues that Middle East regional connectivity is the region’s most enormous untapped opportunity, revealing more than 120 unserved routes through its Embraer Middle East route analysis and highlighting strong demand for small narrowbody aircraft. The company warns that the underdeveloped intra-regional aviation market is holding back growth, and says its E-Jets E2 Middle East potential positions the family to serve dozens of new Middle East city pair opportunities sustainably.
A Region Built for Global Travel
The Middle East’s reputation as one of the world’s most powerful aviation hubs is undisputed. Flag carriers in the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have spent decades building global super-connector networks, turning regional airports into gateways for intercontinental travel.
But Embraer’s analysis suggests the model has come at a cost. In September 2025, 78% of seats available for sale (ASKs) in the region were deployed on long-haul routes, leaving just 22% for the intra-regional aviation market.
Countries, including Oman, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq, are investing heavily in aviation as part of their wider economic development plans, yet many of their domestic and regional markets remain underserved. Routes between smaller cities, Embraer argues, are the missing piece of the region’s aviation ecosystem.
LCC Growth Reshapes the Market
Low-cost carriers have been quick to capitalise on the short-haul gap, expanding rapidly over the past 15 years. Their share of seat capacity on regional routes has climbed from 15% in 2010 to nearly 40% in 2025.
That growth has stimulated demand, but it has also created a squeeze. Price-sensitive travellers dominate LCC networks, pushing down average fares and leaving all airlines increasingly exposed to fluctuations in operating costs.
Fuel price volatility, Embraer warns, remains one of the most significant risks to the industry. The company points to the severe spike in jet fuel prices around 2022 as evidence of how easily slim margins can evaporate.
The Industry Response That Created New Problems
To counter rising costs, Middle Eastern airlines have followed a global trend of “up-gauging” – using bigger jets to reduce the cost per seat.
Between 2010 and 2025, the number of large narrowbody aircraft used on intra-regional flights surged, while aircraft below 150 seats almost disappeared from fleets.
However, larger aircraft mean that airlines must fill more seats to break even, often requiring deep fare cuts or relying on connecting traffic. As a result, airlines have become less willing to launch smaller or riskier new routes.
Embraer states that this is why the number of direct city pairs served within the Middle East decreased over the last decade, despite overall traffic growth.
Benefits of smaller narrowbodies
The core of Embraer’s pitch is the introduction of new-generation small narrowbody aircraft, particularly its E-Jets E2 family, which it says reverses old economic assumptions. Unlike previous generations, these jets offer lower trip costs than larger narrowbodies while maintaining comparable seat costs, providing airlines with a way to right-size capacity without compromising profitability.
By reducing the break-even load, Embraer argues that airlines can launch new routes earlier, add frequencies more affordably, and match aircraft size more accurately to demand. The company’s analysis identifies more than 120 unserved city pairs across the Middle East that could support direct services today.
Middle East’s next frontier amid missed opportunities
The report further highlights routes such as Abu Dhabi–Al Qassim, which was launched and discontinued within a year despite apparent underlying demand. Embraer argues that such markets struggle not because demand is absent, but because the aircraft used require too many seats to be filled to make services profitable.
Saudi Arabia alone accounts for around 60% of the new route opportunities, reflecting its rapidly expanding domestic network and Vision 2030 goals.
Senior airline executives quoted in the report say balancing capacity is becoming a central strategic priority.
Karim Makhlouf, CCO of Royal Jordanian, said smaller narrowbodies can “immediately improve the operational results” on routes that struggle with load factors.
Behramjee Ghadially, Senior Manager of Fleet & Network Planning, added that many regional and domestic markets “require a 100-to-120-seater aircraft for optimal operations”.
Embraer’s conclusion is simple: the Middle East has mastered connecting the world; now it must connect itself.
It pitches small, narrow-body aircraft as a solution for increasing frequencies, strengthening hubs, opening new markets, and meeting the region’s long-term development plans. As nations double down on tourism, infrastructure and economic diversification, Embraer argues that the next major aviation frontier is not across oceans, but within the region’s own borders.
