Poland closed part of its northeastern airspace overnight after unidentified objects, suspected of being smuggling balloons, entered from Belarus. The closure forced a halt to all civilian flights in the affected Podlaskie region.
Understanding the Hybrid Threat
The term “hybrid” refers to tactics that use non-military means to cause disruption. In January, Poland warned Belarus over what it called “mass attempts” to smuggle cigarettes using these very balloons, framing the balloons as part of a broader campaign aimed at testing defences and causing unrest. A single balloon can carry up to 1,500 illegal cigarette packs. Officials have now logged roughly 150 incidents. The Polish military is on high alert, stating:
“Polish Armed Forces remain ready to perform tasks related to the protection of Polish airspace”
Coincidence Unlikely
This adds to a growing series of such events on NATO’s eastern flank, as neighbouring Lithuania faced identical chaos in 2025.
Repeated balloon entries from Belarus forced Vilnius Airport to close over a dozen times, affecting 5% of all passengers. There was around €750,000 worth of damage. As a result, Lithuania declared a nationwide state of emergency in December.
Lithuania accused Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko of deliberately enabling these actions. Like Poland, they believe the action is a deliberate “hybrid attack” on their nation. Both targeted nations, Poland and Lithuania, are NATO members. These incidents are seen as a direct test of the alliance’s border security and collective defence protocols.
Will NATO need a specific strategy to counter these Belarusian balloons? Let us know your thoughts below.
