Got a flight from China to Japan scheduled any time soon, maybe even late next year? Look in your email. There’s a good chance the money’s already back in your account; no request is needed.
Sudden Full-Refund Policy Rolled Out as China Japan flight freeze
Starting November 15, Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern – along with over ten carriers from the mainland and Hong Kong – suddenly allowed full refunds without fees on all flights to Japan. While some exceptions end by December 31, a few slip past into 2025 without fanfare. According to insiders speaking to Travel Radar, top-level officials pushed this decision through overnight, giving no heads-up even to their internal pricing departments.
The trigger hit exactly – everyone saw it unfold.
On November 12, Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, called a potential Chinese military move on Taiwan a serious danger to Japan’s survival. This isn’t just dramatic talk – it matches exactly what’s written in Article 1 of Japan’s 2015 defence law. That rule lets Japan help defend allies. It also allows direct aid to American troops when needed.
Beijing’s Immediate Reaction
In just two days, China’s foreign ministry hit back at Takaichi, calling her comments deeply misleading and meddling in its domestic matters. By November 14, the culture and tourism department rolled out a Level-2 warning – the first such alert toward Japan since 2019 – due to worsening ties and growing dangers for travellers from China. Hours after, Hong Kong’s security team followed up with the very same caution notice.
Airlines Slash Capacity Overnight
The carriers set off early the following day.
By the end of the day on Nov 15, flights from mainland China to Japan were down about 491,000 seats through March 2026 – that’s nearly a third of all future bookings – based on data given to Travel Radar by Cirium and OAG. On several days, routes like Shanghai Pudong to Tokyo Narita or Guangzhou to Osaka Kansai saw over 80% cut in daily flights.
Years back, cheap flights to Japan weren’t driven by budget airlines – but by China’s big three carriers routing passengers through Beijing, Shanghai, or Guangzhou. Travellers from Europe or Southeast Asia often grabbed return tickets to Tokyo for around ¥38,000-¥45,000 if they didn’t mind adding a four-hour internal flight at the start. That deal’s vanished now. New options on Korean Air, Asiana, Cathay, Singapore Airlines, or local Japanese airlines cost 40-90% more; plus, most are fully booked past Golden Week in 2026.
Diplomatic Tit-for-Tat Continues
The talks between them feel cold. On November 16, Japan’s foreign ministry called in China’s envoy; hours later, China’s office in Tokyo fired back with a matching complaint. Out loud, each claims things are steady – Japan says it still backs solving issues by talking calmly, while China again states Taiwan touches a vital concern and won’t allow outside interference.
The fallout just keeps spreading. Because of fresh bureaucratic holdups, Japan’s seafood buyers are stuck at China’s borders. Instead of moving forward, a pair of joint film projects set for 2027 got scrapped without notice. Anyone flying near the mainland is switching routes these days.
Working Alternatives Right Now
Right now, working options – ones you can actually use – are limited, but real Incheon stopover space – Korean Air or Asiana – space is tight, and prices jumped about 45 per cent. Hong Kong – Cathay Pacific stays steady, mostly serving high-end travellers. Taipei: EVA Air, China Airlines, Starlux – shortest hops, seeing massive spillover demand. Singapore – or Bangkok, or maybe Kuala Lumpur – remains among the most affordable sixth-freedom hubs around. Direct flights on ANA or Japan Airlines – business seats are pretty much all you’ll find until April.
Here’s what it means for airlines right now: it isn’t just some short dip. Airlines have started yanking planes from Japan flights, shifting them instead to spots across Southeast Asia or into the Middle East. Right now, future seat sales on Chinese airlines heading to Japan? They’re sitting below 12% compared to where they were back in early 2024, projected out to 2026. If tensions don’t ease up quickly, that once top global route – moving around a million travellers monthly before Covid – is basically frozen, with no end in sight. We’ll stay tuned by tracking flight plans plus any official signals between governments. For you, though – if Japan’s somewhere you might go next year – grab tickets with free changes, pick non-Chinese carriers, and maybe grab that aisle near the emergency exit.
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