Aviation consultancy IBA estimates global aircraft deliveries for 2026 at 1,800 aircraft across Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, ATR, and COMAC. According to IBA’s analysis, manufacturers will be bullish on meeting the rising demand and ramping up production this year.
Airbus vs. Boeing
The forecast is based on an analysis by IBA’s chief economist and chief data officer, Dr. Stuart Hatcher. According to Hatcher, the rise in deliveries this year will be significant, but compared to the year-on-year increase, it would be no greater than the 2025 deliveries’ increase over 2024.
UK trade association ADS had predicted aircraft deliveries at around 1,340. Despite issues with aircraft recall, Airbus achieved its delivery targets in 2025, delivering 793 commercial aircraft, up 4% from the 766 deliveries in 2024. Boeing delivered around 600 commercial aircraft, a substantial recovery from the 348 delivered in 2024.
Hatcher expects Airbus to deliver “just over” 900 aircraft this year: 700 of the A320 family, over 100 A220s, 42 A330 jets, and 65 A350s.
For Boeing, he estimates 670 deliveries, which include around 510 737s, over 100 787s, and 25–30 each of the 767 and 777F jets, “alongside continued progress toward certification milestones.” Boeing outsold Airbus for the first time this decade in 2025.
The IBA executive said:
“Aircraft supply is the real potential swing factor. 2025 marked a turning point, with meaningful production progress across OEMs. Airbus stepped up final assembly activity in preparation for higher rates, while Boeing’s return to a stable production flow, though behind Airbus, was an important confidence signal.”
Embraer expected to ramp up deliveries
Among smaller players in the market, the Hatcher expects Embraer to lead the pack. Embraer’s commercial aviation deliveries guidance for 2025 was between 77-85 aircraft. In his analysis, he said:
“Flows from Embraer, ATR and COMAC are somewhat in line with growth expectations set two years ago, albeit delayed. We expect Embraer to lead the pack with 85-90 E-Jets, ATR to get back over 40, and COMAC to deliver >55 for both the C909 and C919. This, of course, remains dependent on being able to source US components.”
Hatcher expects the overall environment to be generally supportive for aviation. Demand would be the key driver for growth in the sector as fuel prices remain lower due to easing inflation and interest rates going down. He added that:
“Fuel remains down, profits are up, and airlines are in no rush to add capacity beyond taking new deliveries. That discipline, however, tends to fade as route competition intensifies – often with painful consequences.”
Secondary market in question
Though commercial aviation is expected to be on the rise, Hatcher questions the growth momentum for the secondary market, which is aircraft leasing. As manufacturers ramp up deliveries, what happens to the older aircraft?
It is essential to consider the level at which airlines will utilise older aircraft as they upgrade their fleet with new deliveries. Hatcher said:
“High utilisation is not sustainable forever, particularly as maintenance and reliability pressures build, but unit costs and profits have moved in the right direction, and it can become difficult to give back.”
Lease rates still remain way above historical norms despite softening. Lease starts and ends are at an all-time low, and the tenors are much shorter. It remains to be seen what happens to the aircraft leasing markets this year.
However, the market for widebody aircraft is likely to maintain the upward momentum despite challenges.
“Transaction activity should increase, partly through deliveries and sale-leasebacks, but growth in sales with leases attached is likely to dominate. Expect more ABS issuance – potentially bypassing USD 10bn – alongside further significant M&A activity and short-term lease extensions,” Hatcher added.
In terms of aircraft retirements, the outlook is unclear. Though there is some optimism with retirement numbers going up since October 2025, overall activity may remain slow.
What are your thoughts on the commercial aviation sector’s growth momentum for the year? Share your thoughts in the comments.
