Global Passenger Traffic Won’t Reach Pre-COVID Levels Until 2024: IATA

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) revised its prediction for passenger traffic recovery on Tuesday. Earlier, the global airlines trade association projected pre-COVID-19 levels to return no earlier than 2023. However, in its latest update, it declared that recovery is slower than it initially expected; thereby taking an additional year.

Contributing Factors

In the detailed report, IATA identified three major contributing factors to the more pessimistic recovery outlook:” 

  1. Slow virus containment in the US and developing economies — The developing world has been hit the hardest from the coronavirus. These economies have by-and-large struggled to contain the spread of the virus. Right now the world is fearing a second wave of the coronavirus as renewed outbreaks (like in China) occurred in these countries. The US along with emerging economies “represent around 40% of global air travel markets.” So they will have a huge impact on global passenger traffic recovery.
  2. Reduced corporate travel — The corporate world has also caved in on itself. Major corporations have cut travel budgets and instead opted for the cheaper virtual option as part of cost-cutting measures. “Video conferencing appears to have made significant inroads as a substitute for in-person meetings.”
  3. Weak consumer confidence — The final piece of the puzzle is weak consumer confidence in travelling to either visit friends or relatives or leisure travel. A whopping “55% of respondents to IATA’s June passenger survey don’t plan to travel in 2020.”

Domestic and International Markets

Statistics quoted by IATA indicate that domestic traffic is recovering faster than international. This is because passengers are preferring short-haul domestic travel to avoid the greater risk for virus contraction involved in international travel. Additionally, IATA has predicted global enplanements to fall 55% this year. It expects this number to rise to 62% next year — still falling short 30% from 2019. Whereas domestic market RPKs will recover more slowly despite opening up sooner than international markets.

IATA’s Chief Executive, Alexandre de Juniac added:

Passenger traffic hit bottom in April, but the strength of the upturn has been very weak. What improvement we have seen has been domestic flying. International markets remain largely closed. Consumer confidence is depressed and not helped by the UK’s weekend decision to impose a blanket quarantine on all travelers returning from Spain. And in many parts of the world infections are still rising. All of this points to a longer recovery period and more pain for the industry and the global economy.

Last month, international traffic shrank by 96.8% while domestic traffic demand fell 67.6% as compared to last year.

Global market stats
June 2020 Performance © IATA

RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) and ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) are two important airline industry metrics. The higher an airline’s RPK the better. But recent conditions have caused a significant drop in this number globally. Here is a brief explanation of their importance from AirlineGeeks:

Airlines have to try to match their supply (ASKs) with the market demand (RPKs). While shortage of seats will often result in higher airfare, excess capacity can lead to reduced margins due to higher fixed costs. So an increase in capacity is positive only if it is supported by an adequate rise in demand for air travel.

Domestic market stats
Dometic Market Stats © IATA

What Now?

ASnapseed - Travel Radar - Aviation Newslthough the current outlook for commercial aviation is nothing short of grim, there is a silver lining. If a coronavirus vaccine is developed this year and made widely accessible it “could allow a faster recovery.” 

Another game-changer could be the widespread use of air bridges. Like the European Union, the Middle East, South Asia and North American regions could benefit from quarantine-free travel corridors that could promote international air travel.

IATA also urged governments to pay heed to the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO’s) global guidelines for restoring air connectivity. The document features a framework to cope with the adverse impact that the pandemic has had on the global aviation transportation system.

What do you think of IATA’s latest forecast? Will air travel recover before 2024, or will it last longer? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! 

Subscribe to our Weekly Digest!

More News

Oneworld Unveils Incredible New Lounge in Amsterdam for 25th Anniversary

As part of celebrating its 25th anniversary, the Oneworld...

Exciting News: Doncaster Sheffield Airport Plans To Reopen With £138 Milion Fund

Doncaster Sheffield Airport plans to reopen after closing in...

Air Canada Reports Strong Fourth Quarter and Record Full Year 2023 Financial Results

Air Canada has recently released their fourth-quarter and full-year...

Southwest Airlines’ Financial Performance Results in Profit at Year-End 2023

Southwest Airlines’ financial performance has resulted in a profit...
Travel Radar
Travel Radar
Articles from guest contributors wishing to remain anonymous are credited to this account. Want to contribute to Travel Radar either in-name, or anonymously? Get in touch: [email protected]


Please enter your comment!

Wordpress themeseotakipçi satın alankara implant fiyatları11yol kapanıpassport psdbatman evden eve nakliyatbalkon köşe takımılastik patlatanevden eve nakliyatkartal evden eve nakliyatfatih antika eşya alanlarfenerbahçe antika eşya alanlarnakliyatantika alanlarantika alanlarwoocommerce baselJannah themeeskişehir inşaat şirketlerieskişehir uydu tamirkitap alanlarantika alanlarantika alanlarseoEskişehir uyduİzmir psikologeşya depolamaantalya haberpgcdpgcdpmsaAccident LawyerDental Implantiqos tereatuzla evden eve nakliyatAntika alan yerlergaziantep evden eve nakliyateskişehir saç protezihayır lokmasıtuzla evden eve nakliyatodunpazarı emlakhayır lokmasıbatman evden eve nakliyatpendik evden eve nakliyatgölcük evden eve nakliyatgölcük evden eve nakliyatelektrik taahhüt firmalarıbuy hacklinkistanbul evden eve nakliyatankara evden eve nakliyatavcılar korsan taksibahcelievler korsan taksibestwhozisahibindenporselen kaplama dislerankara diş estetiğidiş teli tedavisimersin evden eve nakliyatturkmmometin2 pvpmetin2 forumitemciEtimesgut evden eve nakliyatreplika saatlertuzla asansörlü nakliyatkartal evden eve nakliyatgebze evden eve nakliyatankara evden eve nakliyatatasehir korsan taksiankara parca esya tasımaankara gülüş tasarımıankara gülüş tasarımıankara implant fiyatlarıniğde evden eve nakliyatEskişehir yabancı dil okulujojobetAnkara Evden Eve Nakliyatvozol 12000puffcoinbaristanbul saç ekimiankara çıkışlı günübirlik turlarEtimesgut evden eve nakliyatEtimesgut evden eve nakliyathasankeyf evden eve nakliyatkadıköy evden eve nakliyatmersin evden eve nakliyatçankaya evden eve nakliyatankara parca esya tasımaanadolu yakası korsan taksimaltepe evden eve nakliyattuzla evden eve nakliyatankara implant fiyatlarıankara gülüş estetiğiyenimahalle evden eve nakliyaten yakın çekiciAntalya Çittereatereaseo çalışmasıistanbul hayır lokmasıbatman nakliyatata şehir evden eve nakliyatholiganbetmaltepe evden eve nakliyatüsküdar evden eve nakliyatmersin nakliyatelektrik taahhüt firmalarıgüneş enerji firmakepenk tamiriİstanbul evden eve nakliyatmaldives casinospoodletereapancakeswap botpancakeswap botuniswap sniper botfront running botsniper botfront run botistanbul hayır lokmasıKartal evden eve nakliyatçankaya evden eve nakliyatataşehir evden eve nakliyatankara ofis taşımacılığı
ankara escortizmir escortporno izleetimesgut escortdeneme bonusuCasinoslot girişbig bass bonanza oynaAviator oynasugar rush oynaçankaya escortsweet bonanzagates of olympus oynakayseri escortçankaya escortkızılay escortkeçiören escortBahisnoweryaman escortdiyarbet girişCasinoslotwild west gold demo oynaredbullholdenracing.comdenemebonususiteler.comankara escortmarsbahisMatadorbetMatadorbetEscortSaatlik escortManisa escortGümüşhane escortfethiye escortDeneme Bonusu Veren SitelerDeneme Bonususahabetcasibomcasibom girişŞişli escortizmir escortDenizli escortMalatya Escortşanlıurfa escortHacklinkBeşiktaş escortAtaşehir escortBeylikdüzü escortkadıköy escortcialisViagraBahis siteleriEsenyurt escortbets10marsbahismasözmasözantalya escortmarsbahiscasibombonusbetturkeyfixbetcasibomessbahisdeneme bonusu veren sitelerdeneme bonusu 2024