In its latest Commercial Market Outlook, Boeing has announced a confident forecast of 41,170 new deliveries for passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years.
A positive outlook
U.S aerospace manufacturer Boeing released its latest Commercial Market Outlook this Saturday ahead of the 2022 Farnborough International Airshow, projecting demand for over 41,000 aircraft over the next two decades across North America, Asia-Pacific, China, and Europe.
Boeing expects single-aisle aircraft (such as its 737 MAX range of aircraft) to make up most of the deliveries over the next two decades – 75% worth to be exact. Widebodies like the 787 Dreamliner and the 777X will make about 18%. Regional aircraft deliveries will make up 6% of the total 41,170 and freighters will make up 2%.
Interestingly, Boeing’s projections are bigger than competitor Airbus.
Last week, the European manufacturer forecasted in its 2022 Global Market Forecast that there will be demand for 39,490 new passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years.
The forecast is 470 over last year’s but has also been affected by the relatively unstable year 2021 was for the industry.
Airbus predicted that 80% of the desired aircraft will be single-aisle – the remaining 20% widebody.
Returning to Boeing, the manufacturer predicted that the global fleet will nearly double over the next twenty years, and about half of the new aircraft entering into active service will replace older jetliners that are flying today.
Boeing also expects that the global fleet will total 47,080 by 2041.
From a regional perspective, Boeing expects 23% of the new aircraft deliveries to go to North America. A total of 63% would go to Asia-Pacific, Europe, and China with a share of 21%. The Middle East will receive a total of 7%, Latin America will see 5% of the 41,170 total and Africa will welcome the remaining 2%.
Boeing projects that the airline industry is close to emerging from the pandemic. It may not feel like it when you consider the delays and cancellations dominating airlines and airports at the minute, but by the end of May, the industry was almost back to 70% of the pre-pandemic traffic levels.
So while the disruption over recent months has been taxing, the fact that travellers are keen to book flights and indulge in air travel has accelerated the return of international traffic.
Darren Hulst, Boeing’s Vice President, Commercial Marketing, shared his thoughts on this:
“98% of the number of single-aisle aircraft operating prior to the pandemic are back in service. On the widebody side, it’s still below 80% of the number of active aircraft in 2019 and early 2020.”
It’s not all good news…
Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook wasn’t completely rosy. It did feature signs of the potential challenges the world’s economy will face over the next two decades.
Economically, recovery following the pandemic will take much longer than it may feel. In regards to the aviation industry, Boeing expects that there will be approximately 19,575 deliveries during the recovery period, which is projected to be 10 years.
And despite the high number, this forecast of 41,170 new deliveries from 2022 – 2041 is lower than predictions made in 2019, 2020, and 2021. In 2019, Boeing predicted that there would be approximately 44,040 deliveries in the next two decades.
Darren Hulst commented on this:
“Our view of the demand for deliveries over the next 20 years is down about 2,500 jets compared to last year. Even if you included Russia, it is still below our forecast from last year. That reflects the decline in a two-tenths of a percent annual growth rate for passenger traffic. Our view of 20-year view is impacted by a slight reduction in our assessment of global GDP for the long term.”
Also, if you were curious, Boeing excluded Russia from its analysis overall due to its inability to assess the market.
What do you make of Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook? Do you fancy their projections or Airbus’? Share your thoughts with us in the comments below!